Friday, July 16, 2010


Sixty two per cent of Kenyans will vote in favour of the proposed constitution, the latest opinion poll shows.
The poll released Friday by Strategic Research showed that twenty per cent will reject the document while 18 per cent are indecisive.

The indecisive lot is significant number, who could sway the vote either way were they to make up their minds before the referendum on August 4, 19 days away.

The poll shows that the Yes side has increased its fortunes with five percentage points up from 57pc in the previous survey conducted by pollster Synovate in June.

The poll results will come as a boost to the Yes camp that suffered a blow after Prime Minister Raila Odinga, a key campaigner, was hospitalised early July and had to take a break from the referendum rallies.

The Yes team has conceded that Mr Odinga's absence has considerably slowed its momentum and his energy is missing from their campaigns.

The Yes side has most supporters in Mr Odinga’s Nyanza stronghold with 83.5pc of the vote while Rift Valley province has the bulk of No backers at 31.5pc.

Higher Education minister William Ruto, who is leading the No campaign, draws most of his supporters from the Rift Valley.

Abstain from vote

The poll, conducted from July 9- 14, reports that 74pc of Kenyans are likely to vote at the referendum set for August 4 while 13.2pc reported that they were very unlikely to abstain from the vote.

A total of 3,002 respondents were polled countrywide.

Surprisingly, those who reported they were unlikely to vote were the youth (18-24) at 19.6pc while middle aged Kenyans (45-49) were the most likely voters polling an impressive 82.3pc.

The youth, who form majority of voters, have been touted as the one of the groups to benefit most from a new constitution and have been pushing for a generational change in Kenya's leadership.

Other than Nyanza, the Yes camp draws its strength from North Eastern (77.8pc), Nairobi (76.9),Western (73.3pc), Central (64.9pc), Rift Valley (51.5pc) and Coast (54.9pc) respectively.

The new law backers have the least support from Eastern province (48.9pc), in Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka's backyard.

Conversely, the No camp support is highest in the Rift Valley at 31.5pc followed by Eastern(29.7pc), Coast (18.8pc), Western (14.2pc), Central (14.0pc) and Nairobi (11.6pc).

The group has the least number of sympathisers in Nyanza (3.7pc) and North Eastern (8.7pc).

Of those polled, 85pc reported being registered to vote at the plebiscite while 15pc said they had not registered as voters. Of these number, 29.1pc said they had no identification card (ID) while 20.1pc reported that they will not voter or having no interest altogether.


A further 85pc of Kenyans reported having either read of heard about the proposed constitution with a paltry 12pc pleading ignorance.

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